Investment Education

According to Odaily, the Carlyle Group anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts by the end of this year, followed by a pause to assess the impact. The private equity firm noted signs of a 'vibrant' economy. CEO Schwartz mentioned that monetary policy has already helped curb inflation, and after the expected rate cuts in 2024, the Fed might only need to cut rates once more next year. Schwartz also highlighted that trading activity in the U.S. has begun to improve and is likely to continue increasing unless there is an unexpected market disruption. In the first half of this year, Carlyle's allocation and realization of funds have increased, although these metrics remain well below peak levels.

According to Odaily, Commerzbank analysts have indicated that following the European Central Bank's decision to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points last week, several other central banks are set to announce their policy decisions this week. Most of these decisions are likely to maintain current interest rates, with one significant exception. If the Federal Reserve does not begin its rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday, it would be a major surprise.Analyst Volkmar Baur noted, 'At the start of this week, the market anticipated a slightly higher than 50% chance of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Our economists still expect a 25 basis point cut, which is well justified.' He added, 'However, a small initial step does not rule out larger moves in the future. This is why the current risk leans towards a weaker dollar.'

According to Odaily, the market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep its key overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.25% this week. However, the December meeting is expected to be more intriguing. Out of 36 economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research, 19 predict that the BOJ will raise rates again in December.Before the BOJ's meeting on December 18-19, the bank will monitor several key indicators to assess whether the economy is on track. These indicators include the BOJ's Tankan surveys for September and December, third-quarter GDP data, and corporate earnings for the same period.

According to Odaily, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates. However, he emphasized that this reduction will not be dramatic or groundbreaking.

According to Odaily, gold prices saw a slight increase during the early Asian market session. Tickmill analyst Joseph Dahrieh noted that the rise is driven by a weakening dollar and growing expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Dahrieh highlighted that recent data from the U.S. job market indicates an economic slowdown, which raises the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut. Additionally, Dahrieh mentioned that the increasing political uncertainty ahead of the U.S. November elections is enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

According to CoinDesk, two prominent U.S. lawmakers, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), are optimistic about passing crypto oversight legislation before the end of the year. This effort would require strategic maneuvering to attach crypto-related matters to essential legislation during the lame-duck session of Congress, which occurs after the elections but before the new members take office next year.Sen. Lummis expressed confidence at an event hosted by Georgetown University's Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, stating, 'I really do think we're going to get something done in the lame duck.' She mentioned that an ongoing effort at the Senate Agricultural Committee could achieve bipartisan support and be amended in late-year negotiations to include other necessary details. Lummis warned that if comprehensive U.S. regulation is delayed into the next congressional session, it might be postponed until late 2025. 'We just can't wait anymore,' she emphasized, noting that Europe is ahead in this regard.Rep. McHenry, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee and is set to retire after this session, led a significant crypto legislative effort this year, successfully passing a comprehensive digital assets bill through the House of Representatives. This effort, supported by 71 House Democrats, demonstrated 'substantial momentum' for a crypto bill. McHenry suggested that the legislation might need to be linked to a spending package requiring congressional approval this year, though he acknowledged the possibility of failure. 'There are seeds that you plant that may not grow in your timeframe,' he remarked, adding that the crypto sector now has 'policy footprints that I've left in the sand' for future debates. 'Somebody else's name may be on it when it's signed into law,' he noted.Sen. Lummis also reiterated her proposal for the U.S. to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve with a four-year buying program, which she believes could yield trillions in value over 20 years of holding onto Bitcoin.

According to Odaily, institutional analysts believe that the recent U.S. retail sales data is unlikely to significantly influence this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy report. Earlier reports indicated that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, suggesting that the U.S. economy maintained a solid foundation for most of the third quarter. The data showed a 0.1% month-on-month increase in August retail sales, following an upward revision to 1.1% for July.

According to BlockBeats, on September 17, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a brief surge of nearly 20 points following the release of August retail sales data. The index is currently reported at 100.73.

According to Odaily, the United States' retail sales for August recorded a monthly increase of 0.1%, surpassing the expected decline of 0.2%. The previous month's figure was revised from 1.00% to 1.1%. The retail sales control group for August also matched expectations at 0.3%, with the prior value adjusted from 0.30% to 0.4%. Additionally, core retail sales for August saw a monthly rise of 0.1%, which was below the anticipated 0.2%, and the previous month's figure was revised from 0.40% to 0.4%.

According to BlockBeats, on September 17, the euro credit default swaps (CDS) experienced a decline as the market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve's first rate cut on Wednesday. Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer at Moneyfarm, noted in a report that market sentiment has significantly improved due to the high expectations of a Fed rate cut. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that the iTraxx Europe Crossover Index, which tracks euro high-yield CDS, fell by 5 basis points to 285 basis points. Meanwhile, the iTraxx Europe Main Index, which tracks euro investment-grade CDS, decreased by 1 basis point to 53 basis points.