According to Odaily, U.S. federal funds rate futures have continued their upward trend, suggesting an 89% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
According to Odaily, the Taiwan Weighted Index experienced a significant decline on August 5, Monday. The index closed down by 1807.21 points, marking a decrease of 8.35%, and settled at 19830.88 points.
According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs economists have increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession next year from 15% to 25%. Despite this, they emphasize that there are several reasons not to be overly concerned about a recession, even with a significant rise in unemployment rates. Led by Jan Hatzius, the economists stated, 'We still believe the risk of a recession is limited. The overall economy appears to be in good shape, with no major financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates quickly if necessary.'It is noteworthy that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve is less aggressive compared to JPMorgan and Citigroup. Hatzius' team anticipates the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November, and December. In contrast, JPMorgan and Citigroup expect a 50 basis point cut in September. Goldman Sachs' report states, 'Our forecast assumes that job growth will rebound in August, and the FOMC will consider a 25 basis point rate cut sufficient to address any downside risks. If we are wrong and the August jobs report is as weak as July's, a 50 basis point cut in September is possible.'The economists also expressed skepticism about the U.S. labor market facing a rapid deterioration risk. They argue that job vacancies indicate demand remains robust, and there are no apparent shocks triggering a downturn.
According to Odaily, Bank of America has revised its monetary policy outlook following weaker-than-expected data, including the ISM Manufacturing Report and the July non-farm payroll report. The bank now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting. This adjustment reflects a broader expectation of gradual monetary easing by the Fed.In addition to this forecast, Bank of America has also lowered its expectations for the terminal rate of the upcoming normalization cycle. The bank now projects the terminal rate to be between 3.25% and 3.5%, a reduction of 25 basis points from previous estimates. This adjustment is based on the assumption that the economy may cool faster than anticipated by both the bank and the Federal Reserve, potentially reducing the need for a prolonged high-interest-rate policy stance.
According to Foresight News, several White House officials and cryptocurrency industry executives are set to participate in a roundtable discussion on digital asset policy. The event is organized by Representative Ro Khanna and will include notable attendees such as National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Bruce Reed, and outgoing Senior Advisor Anita Dunn.
According to PANews, the High Court of Odisha in India has reiterated that cryptocurrency trading is neither prohibited nor considered illegal in the country. The court granted bail to Yes World CEO Sandeep Chowdhury, citing the absence of an official ban or illegal status for cryptocurrency transactions in India. Chowdhury had been detained on allegations of defrauding investors through a Ponzi scheme or multi-level marketing plan disguised as a cryptocurrency business.Despite the lack of specific cryptocurrency regulations in India, the government imposes heavy taxes on cryptocurrency transactions. Gains from virtual digital assets (VDAs) are subject to a 30% tax, and users cannot offset gains with losses as they can with stocks. Additionally, a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) on digital asset transactions further impacts traders.
According to PANews, the Royal Bank of Canada has reported an unexpected downturn in the U.S. labor market at the start of the third quarter. July's non-farm payroll data indicated a significant slowdown in labor market conditions, which have been gradually deteriorating over the past year. The unemployment rate rose from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% in April, and then increased to 4.3% over the next three months.During this week's Federal Reserve meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continued to describe the current labor market weakness as a normalization from overheated conditions. He emphasized that if the labor market weakens unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve is prepared to respond accordingly. The Royal Bank of Canada still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September and believes the risk of further rate cuts for the remainder of the year leans towards more rather than fewer.
According to PANews, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating potential cryptocurrency fraud involving 15 different tokens, including the memecoin BEN. The investigation targets unknown individuals who may be involved in fraudulent activities. On July 16, the CFTC issued a subpoena to Hit Network, a media company focused on cryptocurrency, which had previously hired Ben 'BitBoy' Armstrong as a spokesperson. The subpoena requests information on the trading activities and digital wallets related to these 15 tokens, including BEN, which is associated with Armstrong.Armstrong, known for his YouTube channel, has recommended 14 other tokens in his videos, primarily before Hit Network was established. These tokens were suggested as potential investment opportunities. The CFTC's investigation aims to uncover any fraudulent activities linked to these recommendations and the associated digital wallets.
According to Odaily, Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, has stated that the regulatory body anticipates the widespread adoption of the digital ruble, Russia's central bank digital currency (CBDC), within the next five to seven years. Nabiullina emphasized that by 2031, the digital ruble is expected to become a familiar aspect of daily life. She highlighted the benefits of the digital ruble, such as free personal transfers and lower transaction fees for businesses, as key factors that will drive its adoption.
According to Odaily, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the Bank of England have unveiled the results of their 'Pyxtrial Project,' which aims to monitor the reserves of asset-backed stablecoins and tokenized assets. Described as a proof-of-concept project, Pyxtrial is considered an 'important first step.' However, the system is not yet fully ready for deployment. The creators of the project have noted that the global regulatory framework, which the system will help enforce, is still largely under development.