Investment Education

According to BlockBeats, a report by Matrixport on August 23 indicates that while financial markets appear calm, significant turning points may be imminent due to gold, oil, treasury bonds, and the dollar nearing critical support levels. This situation suggests that the macroeconomic landscape is on the brink of substantial changes, although the full impact may take several months to manifest.The sustainability of certain policy proposals from U.S. presidential candidates is in question, with financial markets simultaneously predicting the election winner and worrying about rapidly rising debt levels. Historical data shows that bull markets typically begin around 250 days before a halving event and last for approximately 250 days. When bond yields rise and gold prices rebound simultaneously, it usually indicates a unique and somewhat contradictory economic environment, with Bitcoin likely to emerge as a primary beneficiary asset.

According to BlockBeats, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting tonight at 14:00 (UTC+0). The market is anticipating that Powell will announce the commencement of an interest rate cut cycle in September, focusing on whether a 50 basis point cut remains an option. However, Powell may remain tight-lipped on this matter. Investors should be aware of potential market volatility during this period and consider related risks.Powell's remarks will be closely analyzed for any indications of his economic outlook, especially in light of weaker-than-expected employment reports and further easing of inflation. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to implement a rate cut at its next meeting on September 17-18, though there is some disagreement on the extent of the cut. While most economists predict a 25 basis point reduction, some forecasting agencies, including Citigroup and JPMorgan, anticipate a 50 basis point cut. Wall Street is betting that Powell will confirm the rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming. The market debate has shifted from whether there will be a rate cut to how significant the cut will be.

According to Cointelegraph, a United States appeals court has upheld a California federal judge’s decision to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Hodl Law against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The lawsuit aimed to compel the SEC to clarify its stance on whether Ether (ETH) is classified as a security.Hodl Law's complaint, filed in November 2022 in a San Diego district court, argued that the firm faced a potential risk of SEC enforcement action for using the Ethereum blockchain and its token, Ether. However, the Ninth Circuit appeals court panel ruled on August 22 that the complaint did not demonstrate a “realistic danger” of such enforcement action. The panel noted that there were no allegations indicating that the SEC had investigated, prosecuted, or threatened to investigate or prosecute the law firm’s use of Ether or Ethereum.The law firm had hoped the lawsuit would force the SEC to clarify its position on Ether, especially after the regulator launched several enforcement actions against crypto firms, implicating numerous cryptocurrencies under securities laws. The panel, however, supported the California court’s July 2023 dismissal of the case, stating that Hodl Law failed to provide evidence that the SEC had engaged in “final agency action” regarding the classification of Ether as a security.The panel further added that Hodl Law had not identified any authority requiring the SEC to engage in specific rulemaking or respond to private parties’ requests for guidance on Ether’s legal classification. Hodl Law’s senior managing partner, Fred Rispoli, expressed disappointment in an August 22 post, stating that the court’s decision was “disappointing but expected.” He emphasized that the firm merely wanted an opportunity to argue that Ether is not a federal security.The SEC has not yet determined whether Ether and assets on the Ethereum blockchain are securities, despite approving spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in July. The Ninth Circuit panel mentioned that it is possible the SEC “will never decide that Ether or Ethereum is a ‘security’ under the Securities Act.” Rispoli criticized the panel’s decision, arguing that it undermines the rule of law in the United States. He also indicated that the firm would explore other avenues to compel the SEC to provide a definitive answer on the matter, stating, “We are not giving up.”

According to BlockBeats, on August 23, Freddie Mac announced that the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has decreased to 6.46%, down from 6.49% the previous week. This decline follows a significant drop from earlier this year when borrowing costs surpassed 7%, enhancing homebuyers' purchasing power and encouraging some potential buyers to re-enter the market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on Thursday that U.S. existing home sales rose in July for the first time in five months. Although there was a 1.3% month-over-month increase in July, it remains the slowest July growth rate since 2010, indicating that high home prices and a shortage of affordable housing continue to deter many Americans. Buyers and sellers may also be waiting for further declines in financing costs before making decisions.Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Sam Khater noted, 'Earlier this month, rates dropped significantly and are now hovering just below 6.5%. However, this is not enough to motivate potential homebuyers. We anticipate that rates may need to decrease by another percentage point to stimulate buyer demand.'

According to BlockBeats, on August 23, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazaks expressed a very open attitude towards discussing a rate cut in September, suggesting that a gradual reduction would be the best approach.Kazaks indicated that even if inflation remains stable, a rate cut is still a possibility.

According to BlockBeats, on August 23, Federal Reserve's Collins indicated that the current timing appears suitable to begin easing monetary policy.

According to Odaily, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its September meeting. Rieder believes that a rate cut is necessary to reinvigorate economic growth and alleviate consumer debt pressures. He specifically suggested that the Federal Reserve should reduce rates by 50 basis points in September.

According to Odaily, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard recently shared his insights on several pressing topics, including the US economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory, the upcoming US presidential election, and the potential for another 'Black Monday' market crash. Bullard suggested that the Federal Reserve might implement a series of 25 basis point rate cuts at consecutive meetings, potentially totaling 75 basis points by December.

According to Odaily, the U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 for the week ending August 17, reaching a seasonally adjusted total of 232,000. This figure slightly exceeded the expected 230,000 claims.Chris Larkin from Morgan Stanley E*Trade commented that the latest jobless claims indicate a slowing yet resilient labor market. This trend could potentially support the Federal Reserve's decision to begin lowering interest rates in September.

According to Odaily, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending August 17 reached 232,000, slightly above the expected 230,000. The previous week's figure was revised from 227,000 to 228,000. Additionally, the number of continuing unemployment claims for the week ending August 10 was 1.863 million, close to the anticipated 1.867 million. The prior week's figure was adjusted from 1.864 million to 1.859 million.The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 17 was 236,000, a slight revision from the previous value of 236,500 to 236,750. These figures indicate a marginal increase in unemployment claims, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the labor market. The data provides insight into the current state of employment and economic conditions in the United States.